The most challenging of the types of reasoning. We can’t see causal relationships, we can only infer them.
We encounter causal issues all the time. What caused the September 11 terrorist attacks for example? Was it caused by people trying to destabilize the US economy? Did people who were upset with US foreign policy cause it? Was it just motivated by pure hate and jealousy?
In other words, you are trying to argue that X caused Y because of A, B or C.
Here Y is the phenomenon or event that is caused by X. You have a causal chain when you argue that X caused Y, which in turn caused Z. Problem solvers like psychiatrists for example, try to find out the cause of a pattern before trying to find a solution to the problem. For example: You cannot stand the dark because sometime in your childhood you may have been locked up in a dark room for a few hours.
The Nature of Causal Arguments
Causal arguments argue that one event brings about another. For example, smoking cigarettes causes lung cancer. Causal arguments can be manipulated to persuade an audience. For example, one can argue that America should not go to war because many innocent lives will be lost. On the other hand, one can also argue that America should go to war because not going to war will lead to the terrorists getting away.
Causal arguments can be based on:
- Informal induction:
Identifying a common element that explains a repeated circumstance. For example, a teacher notices that most of the kids who live in one particular part of town are always late to class. He realizes that their bus is always late.
- Scientific experimentation:
A cause and effect relationship which is proved scientifically. For example, not drinking enough water leads to dehydration.
- Correlation:
Finding a link between two phenomena. In other words finding that they often go together and therefore one must be causing the other. For example, a link between going to college and getting a higher paying job.
Causal Argument by Analogy and Precedent
By Analogy:
Making a causal argument by comparing one phenomenon to another. For example:
a. We need to go to war because terrorism is like cancer. If you don’t snip it in the bud, it will get out of hand and spread.
b. We cannot have war because war is like a roller coaster with no brakes. It will lead to disaster.
By Precedent:
Making a causal argument by saying that something will happen because it has happened before. For example:
a. We need to have war because see what happened after Nairobi. We have had even more terrorist attacks.
b. We cannot have war because see what has happened to countries like Afghanistan who have been devastated by war.
Examples
* Chewing tobacco
* causal chain: “Chewing tobacco contains grit and sand, which wear away at teeth; it also contains sugar which wears away at teeth, leading to cavities and then tooth loss.
* “Chewing tobacco caused Tom’s death.” “Chewing tobacco caused Sean’s death.”
* Boating and Drinking
* “boater’s hypnosis” causes you to become impaired from alcohol use more quickly.
* drinking while driving a boat is legal and causes accidents and fatalities.
Additional Problems of Causal Arguments
* “post hoc ergo propter hoc” = “after this therefore because of this”
o confusing a relationship in time with cause and effect
o seen in superstitions
o seen in “just look what happened after we . . . . “ arguments.
* multiple causation
o rainforest destruction is the cause of global warming
o T.V. is responsible for school gun violence.
o my printer problem caused me to be unable to do my speech
* correlation vs. causation
Tips for success in causal reasoning
* use causal chains to help the audience see the causal relationship.
* use testimony of experts to support conclusions
Don’t forget the types of fallacies from Good Reasons, including: slippery slope, red herring, Either-Or fallacy, ad hominem, and bandwagon. Read that discussion for more information.
Practice
Can you identify the kind or reasoning and or the fallacy in the following examples?
1. According to a study by the American Medical Association, men with bald spots have three times the risk of heart attack as men with a full head of hair. Strange as it may seem, it looks as if baldness is a cause of heart attacks.
2. The U.S. Constitution guarantees all citizens the right to bear arms. Gun control legislation infringes on the right of citizens to bear arms. Therefore, gun control legislation is contrary to the Constitution.
3. I don’t see any reason to wear a helmet when I ride a bike. Everyone bikes without a helmet.
4. It’s ridiculous to worry about protecting America’s national parks against pollution and overuse when innocent people are being killed by domestic terrorists.
5. There can be no doubt that the Great Depression was caused by Herbert Hoover. He became President in March 1929, and the stock market crashed just seven months later.
6. If we allow the school board to spend money remodeling the gymnasium, next they will want to build a new school and give all the teachers a huge raise. Taxes will soar so high that businesses will leave and then there will be no jobs for anyone in this town.
7. Raising a child is like having a pet–you need to feed it, play with it, and everything
will be fine.
8. One nonsmoker, interviewed at a restaurant, said, “I can eat dinner just fine even though people around me are smoking.” Another, responding to a Los Angeles Times survey, said, “I don’t see what all the fuss is about. My wife has smoked for years and it has never bothered me.” We can see, then, that secondhand smoke does not cause a problem for most nonsmokers.
9. I can’t support Representative Frey’s proposal for campaign finance reform. After all, he was kicked out of law school for cheating on an exam.
10. Our school must either increase tuition or cut back on library services for students.